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The EU insight you need to win the long game

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Beyond the surface. 
Navigate the long game.

We dissect the structures, relationships and decisions that truly shape the EU’s influence — so you can understand the real power plays that are at work.

The mechanics of EU power

We decode the inner workings of EU institutions, from the shifting alliances in Parliament and the Commission’s internal power struggles to the dealmaking inside the Council and the inter-institutional rivalries that influence the EU’s biggest files.

When do “technical” issues become a shortcut for compromises or power grabs?
How is the far-right reshaping political alliances and legislative outcomes?
Political life of the European Parliament
Political life of the...
Von der Leyen leadership
Reorganisation of the...
Reorganisation of the Commission
EPP dominance in Brussels

Europe’s big decisions

We follow the high-stakes files that set Europe’s course: the MFF, defence, simplification, Ukraine, rule of law and more.

Which dossiers are vulnerable to shifting coalitions and institutional pressure?
Who are the winners and losers of the EU’s next long-term budget?
MFF
Simplification
Defence
Rule of law

Who calls the shots

We identify the decision-makers and political forces that matter most. Find out who really controls the key files — and whose support can make or break Europe’s defining decisions.

Which political factions make key decisions in the Parliament and Council?
How are rivalries inside von der Leyen’s Commission affecting wider EU debates?
Von der Leyen
Metsola
Costa
Seibert

The influence game

We take you inside Brussels’ lobbying arena: the players, the tactics and the rules that shape who wins. See how influence is built, contested and used to steer the European policy agenda.

How are lobbyists organising themselves to influence consequential files?
How do oversight mechanisms tackle the EU’s transparency challenges?
Lobby cases
Regulation
Parties

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Why we are obsessing with the long game

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The EU is a centre of power that shapes policy across Europe and beyond. Understanding it is not optional — it is essential. That means looking past the noise and into the real arenas of decision-making. The biggest developments are rarely the most visible. We dig into the details because only by mastering the nitty-gritty can you connect small moves to the bigger picture. That’s what gives you the clarity and foresight you cannot afford to lose.

Anca Gurzu, EU Managing Editor

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Alexandre Adam’s move to the cabinet of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2024 came with a striking change of scenery.In a previous role as European affairs adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron, Adam worked out of Paris’ Hôtel de Hirsch, where visitors were greeted by postcard views of the Champs Élysées gardens, and glimpses of the steel-and-glass Grand Palais museum.Now, as von der Leyen’s deputy head of cabinet, his office is on the top floor of the European Commission’s headquarters, overlooking Rue de la Loi, the traffic-choked spine of Brussels’ EU quarter. The grey façade of the Commission’s Berlaymont building and the sober exteriors of the European Council buildings define the view.But if Brussels lacks Parisian charm, it brought the 45-year-old career diplomat a different kind of perk: a prime seat in the cockpit of EU power.Renowned as a skilled diplomat, meticulous technician, and strategist, Adam is threading the needle on how to remain one of France’s key influencers in Brussels while also finding his place within the wider bureaucratic machine of the EU executive.A risky betAdam’s appointment as von der Leyen’s second-in-command was seen as a strategic move for Macron, at a time when his liberal political family was losing ground to far-right forces at both the national and EU level.Upon his arrival in Brussels, however, Adam ran into a twofold challenge. A lifelong French civil servant, he had mostly an outsider’s grasp of the inner workings of the Commission’s powerful executive machine.He was also stepping into a power void. The post had been effectively hollowed out by the departure, nearly two years earlier, of fellow Frenchwoman Stéphanie Riso. Her responsibilities had since been absorbed — in all but name — by Adam’s boss: von der Leyen’s longtime confidant and powerful chief of staff, Björn Seibert.As deputy chief of staff, Adam is formally empowered to lead on specific files and to act on Seibert’s behalf. On paper, the two share responsibility for coordinating the work of the cabinet experts who advise von der Leyen.In practice, power is tightly held at the top. Since the start of von der Leyen’s second mandate, she and Seibert —who served as her chief of cabinet when she was German defence minister — have operated as an impenetrable duo, overseeing what insiders described as an unprecedented centralisation of power within the EU executive.According to one former French minister for Europe, Adam was walking into a“hellish” job.“No one besides Björn really carries any weight” in the cabinet, a Commission official said, describing the German civil servant as von der Leyen’s “most trusted confidant.”‘Not too French’Still, the Frenchman has a few cards up his sleeve. While English is Brussels’ working language, Adam is fluent in German — an asset not only with his two superiors, but also with the many Germans who dominate the Commission’s senior ranks. He’s also not entirely new to von der Leyen’s orbit, having worked in her proximity during his time as a close adviser to Macron. Several officials Contexte spoke to, requesting anonymity, pointed to another advantage: Adam’s demeanour. “He's not too French,” as one senior official put it.Where Parisian officials in Brussels are seen as rigid and status-conscious, Adam is described as friendly and approachable. Colleagues say he lightens dinners with his caustic humour and quickly drops the formal French form of address — a small but telling cultural shift in Belgium’s more informal setting. That accessibility matters. A diplomat from a small EU country said Adam was easier to reach — and easier to talk to on the phone — than Seibert, making him a more approachable entry point into von der Leyen’s cabinet. Before taking up his post, Adam also secured control over dossiers firmly in his wheelhouse. He leads on enlargement, Ukraine and relationships with Switzerland and the United Kingdom. His predecessor, Riso, also encouraged him to take on the multiannual financial framework (MFF) — the EU’s seven-year budget — with negotiations for the 2028-2035 cycle now underway. He also closely follows defence issues.His title also grants him access to the Commission’s two main power hubs: the Monday meeting of chiefs of staff and the Wednesday meeting of commissioners. Part of Adam’s informal mandate is to ensure that French priorities — if not always decisive — are at least heard within the EU executive. It doesn’t mean Paris emerges as a winner on all issues: take the Mercosur trade agreement with Latin America, which von der Leyen is trying to push over the finish line despite France’s opposition.

Alexandre Adam’s move to the cabinet of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2024 came with a striking change of scenery.In a previous role as European affairs adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron, Adam worked out of Paris’ Hôtel de Hirsch, where visitors were greeted by postcard views of the Champs Élysées gardens, and glimpses of the steel-and-glass Grand Palais museum.Now, as von der Leyen’s deputy head of cabinet, his office is on the top floor of the European Commission’s headquarters, overlooking Rue de la Loi, the traffic-choked spine of Brussels’ EU quarter. The grey façade of the Commission’s Berlaymont building and the sober exteriors of the European Council buildings define the view.But if Brussels lacks Parisian charm, it brought the 45-year-old career diplomat a different kind of perk: a prime seat in the cockpit of EU power.Renowned as a skilled diplomat, meticulous technician, and strategist, Adam is threading the needle on how to remain one of France’s key influencers in Brussels while also finding his place within the wider bureaucratic machine of the EU executive.A risky betAdam’s appointment as von der Leyen’s second-in-command was seen as a strategic move for Macron, at a time when his liberal political family was losing ground to far-right forces at both the national and EU level.Upon his arrival in Brussels, however, Adam ran into a twofold challenge. A lifelong French civil servant, he had mostly an outsider’s grasp of the inner workings of the Commission’s powerful executive machine.He was also stepping into a power void. The post had been effectively hollowed out by the departure, nearly two years earlier, of fellow Frenchwoman Stéphanie Riso. Her responsibilities had since been absorbed — in all but name — by Adam’s boss: von der Leyen’s longtime confidant and powerful chief of staff, Björn Seibert.As deputy chief of staff, Adam is formally empowered to lead on specific files and to act on Seibert’s behalf. On paper, the two share responsibility for coordinating the work of the cabinet experts who advise von der Leyen.In practice, power is tightly held at the top. Since the start of von der Leyen’s second mandate, she and Seibert —who served as her chief of cabinet when she was German defence minister — have operated as an impenetrable duo, overseeing what insiders described as an unprecedented centralisation of power within the EU executive.According to one former French minister for Europe, Adam was walking into a“hellish” job.“No one besides Björn really carries any weight” in the cabinet, a Commission official said, describing the German civil servant as von der Leyen’s “most trusted confidant.”‘Not too French’Still, the Frenchman has a few cards up his sleeve. While English is Brussels’ working language, Adam is fluent in German — an asset not only with his two superiors, but also with the many Germans who dominate the Commission’s senior ranks. He’s also not entirely new to von der Leyen’s orbit, having worked in her proximity during his time as a close adviser to Macron. Several officials Contexte spoke to, requesting anonymity, pointed to another advantage: Adam’s demeanour. “He's not too French,” as one senior official put it.Where Parisian officials in Brussels are seen as rigid and status-conscious, Adam is described as friendly and approachable. Colleagues say he lightens dinners with his caustic humour and quickly drops the formal French form of address — a small but telling cultural shift in Belgium’s more informal setting. That accessibility matters. A diplomat from a small EU country said Adam was easier to reach — and easier to talk to on the phone — than Seibert, making him a more approachable entry point into von der Leyen’s cabinet. Before taking up his post, Adam also secured control over dossiers firmly in his wheelhouse. He leads on enlargement, Ukraine and relationships with Switzerland and the United Kingdom. His predecessor, Riso, also encouraged him to take on the multiannual financial framework (MFF) — the EU’s seven-year budget — with negotiations for the 2028-2035 cycle now underway. He also closely follows defence issues.His title also grants him access to the Commission’s two main power hubs: the Monday meeting of chiefs of staff and the Wednesday meeting of commissioners. Part of Adam’s informal mandate is to ensure that French priorities — if not always decisive — are at least heard within the EU executive. It doesn’t mean Paris emerges as a winner on all issues: take the Mercosur trade agreement with Latin America, which von der Leyen is trying to push over the finish line despite France’s opposition.